Surprise, haters! Kevin Smith’s big Red State gamble has paid off. A report last week cited Smith as having announced that his film was ‘in the black’ during a keynote address at a National Association of Broadcasters event last week, a vague phrase that suggested that somehow Red State had earned back its $4 million budget through Smith’s 15-city screening and speaking tour. Yet Box Office Mojo lists a mere $851,832 box office take to date. How does Smith’s math work out, exactly?

Pretty well, as it turns out, but not exactly as you might guess. Responding to Movieline via e-mail to clarify the Red State matter, Smith corrected tech/business blog GigaOM’s initial assumption: “That article is inaccurate, but the sentiment is in the same ballpark.”

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Not too shabby considering that, as Smith proudly points out, the Red State roadshows didn’t employ any outside marketing budget beyond his own already-in-place SModcast media infrastructure. Initially, however, many were skeptical that Smith’s self-release plan could meet the early goal of earning back even half of its $4 million budget. After the first roadshow date, Twitchfilm’s Todd Brown went so far as to run the numbers with a little speculative math, determining that the Red State roadshow was unlikely to recoup the targeted $2 million once screening and travel expenses were tabulated.

Brown’s hypothetical equation didn’t include merchandising sales, which Smith folds in with his ticket sales, and assumes that theater rental rates and talent travel for Q&A appearances would cut into the numbers substantially. However, that didn’t account for the foreign sales Smith includes or the domestic home video/VOD/streaming sales that he says are near completion.

Read Movieline’s full story at their site.